Fertility rate to fall below replacement level in almost every world region by 2040: report

March 28, 2024

A comprehensive demographic analysis published by the medical journal The Lancet says that fertility rates are expected to fall in every region of the world except for Sub-Saharan Africa by 2040.

The Christian Post reports that the study analyzes global fertility in 200 countries and provides forecasts on future fertility rates to the year 2100. The report states:

“Fertility rates have declined dramatically around the world since 1950 and will continue to decline in almost all countries and territories up to 2100. While human civilisation is converging on a sustained low-fertility reality, comparatively high fertility rates in some low income countries and territories will result in a clear demographic divide between a subset of low-income countries and the rest of the world.”

Between 1950 and 2021, the global fertility rate has fallen from 4.83 to 2.23. The total fertility rate is measure by the number of children born per woman. The replacement-level fertility rate is 2.1 and refers to the “minimum rate necessary for generational replacement of the population.”

The report claims that the total global fertility rate is expected to fall below replacement level by 2040 in every region of the globe except for Sub-Saharan Africa. By comparison, the United States has a total fertility rate of 1.51.

By 2100, the global fertility rate is projected to be well below the replacement level at 1.59. The report predicts that the consequences of “sustained low fertility rates — and a resulting contraction and [aging] of the population — will lead to serious economic challenges and increasing pressure on health systems, social security programmes, and the labour force.”

The report calls for “pro-natal policies” that create supportive environments for those who give birth” to be enacted to slow the falling rates.

Photo: top, Credit: Bethany Christian Services